Sometimes a statistic can be toyed with a bit to illustrate a point. Here's an example.
Let me explain.
At no time in the last 50 years has there ever been:
The next time you hear any statistics like that about events that do not adhere to the Bell Curve keep in mind that the author might be using fun math like the above to force it into a normal distribution model. They are taught this in school, rewarded for being able to force events into this model, and it makes quick, simple sense to the common folks.
A very long time ago when I was in Middle School a teacher was reading an alarmist article by a reputable and highly respected medical professional. The article claimed that 4% of all humans would die each year from some form of childhood or adult cancer and that nothing could be done to stop the slaughter. I raised my hand and asked "Does that mean that in 25 years the Earth will be devoid of humanity?" It put a whole new spin on the whole alarmist process.
Obviously, in 7th grade I wasn't ready to compound the % across the years, but at a certain point the reproductive capacity of the remainder would fall behind the spread of the cancer, since it was assumed all ages would be affected equally, having been given no information to the contrary. Death usually removes the recipient from the gene pool.
Speaking of no information to the contrary, there is an alarmist article going around the net currently that the majority of the people from Kansas believe that the Earth is the center of the Solar System. I would love to know the exact sequence of questions that arrived at that conclusion, and what the other percentages of people believed (Jordan? Jobs?), but one thing to consider is that the majority of Kansans have at one time or another gone to public school. If you were trying to prove that all money spent on Kansas schools was a pitiful waste, this survey would be the tool.
I highly recommend that you read The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility"
It's an excellent introduction to statistical events outside the Bell Curve and how they impact everything from politics to the insurance industry. I think you might enjoy it no matter what business you are in.
In spite of all the safety locks and procedures and requirements, the probability that you will die in any single roller coaster ride has not varied by even 1% in the last 50 years.If you were to say that to a roller coaster designer I'm sure they would fight about it quite vehemently, quoting various alternative statistics and engineering feats of wonder. You might not be able to get a word in edgewise to explain it to them. But the simple fact remains, the above statement is completely and totally factual.
Let me explain.
At no time in the last 50 years has there ever been:
- a zero percent (0%) chance of death in any one roller coaster ride
- a one percent (1%) chance of death in any one roller coaster ride
The next time you hear any statistics like that about events that do not adhere to the Bell Curve keep in mind that the author might be using fun math like the above to force it into a normal distribution model. They are taught this in school, rewarded for being able to force events into this model, and it makes quick, simple sense to the common folks.
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| I know these numbers are some % off, but assuming they are off the same % in the same direction each time, I can judge my training relatively from day to day |
A very long time ago when I was in Middle School a teacher was reading an alarmist article by a reputable and highly respected medical professional. The article claimed that 4% of all humans would die each year from some form of childhood or adult cancer and that nothing could be done to stop the slaughter. I raised my hand and asked "Does that mean that in 25 years the Earth will be devoid of humanity?" It put a whole new spin on the whole alarmist process.
Obviously, in 7th grade I wasn't ready to compound the % across the years, but at a certain point the reproductive capacity of the remainder would fall behind the spread of the cancer, since it was assumed all ages would be affected equally, having been given no information to the contrary. Death usually removes the recipient from the gene pool.
Speaking of no information to the contrary, there is an alarmist article going around the net currently that the majority of the people from Kansas believe that the Earth is the center of the Solar System. I would love to know the exact sequence of questions that arrived at that conclusion, and what the other percentages of people believed (Jordan? Jobs?), but one thing to consider is that the majority of Kansans have at one time or another gone to public school. If you were trying to prove that all money spent on Kansas schools was a pitiful waste, this survey would be the tool.
I highly recommend that you read The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility"
It's an excellent introduction to statistical events outside the Bell Curve and how they impact everything from politics to the insurance industry. I think you might enjoy it no matter what business you are in.
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